June Market Update ❄️
Crypto Winter...Only Diamond Hands Remain
Just when we didn't think things could get worse, they did. This past month was the hardest one that I have experienced in Crypto and probably excruciatingly familiar to those that HODLd through November/December 2018, but worse.
If you’re going through hell, keep going. - Winston Churchill
Enter crypto winter. This period is usually short and marked by funds collapsing, Ponzi schemes unravelling, mass public exodus, toxic sentiment on Twitter and social media, calls that crypto is dead, and then no one talks about it anymore…and then it pumps again. Historically, this is the time to buy if you can stomach it. For HODLers this is the most painful time of the cycle because they are already all-in and are facing 85-99% drops from all time highs. During the last cycle I HODLd down to about 93% at the trough on ETH and about 85% on BTC. This can only be done with extreme conviction in the long term thesis of the investment. Trying to time tops and bottoms has never worked for me so I must ride this rollercoaster.
Macro could finally be turning favourable as this period is similar to 1994 when the Fed raised rates aggressively to combat inflation. Studying the rate curve and equities during that period shows that equities started to rally around the same time as we are in now in the hike cycle and equity collapse. Equities stayed in a secular bull market all the way through the epic dot com bull run. It seems as oil is breaking a little and hopefully OPEC opens up the spigots soon and we can see inflation start to drop. If I didn't think that Web3 was the best risk/reward opportunity here I would be short oil & gas producers and long QQQ and ARKK ETFs as of two weeks ago.
Currently, my top investment ideas are CloneX, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Otherside, Ethereum, ApeCoin, Bitcoin, and MicroStrategy.
Murakami Flowers (free mint for CloneX holders in March) holders received an airdrop that will be used for redemption of a new NFT.
Otherside will rollout a demo in July.
Terra Luna relaunched and rebranded the old chain Terra Luna Classic. All those with Luma & UST got Luna airdropped to their wallets with a staggered vesting schedule. It seems the new Luna is not based on the growth of an algorithm stable coin but rather similar to Ethereum. I am going to HODL for now.
Despite the massive drops in BTC & ETH prices, the fundamentals have never been stronger for both.
Although I still think Fantom and Hape Social have a lot of upside, I exited my positions and redeployed capital into new blue chip NFT projects as part of portfolio high-grading.
The next investment idea is a NFT project that is innovating at the confluence of Web2 & Web3. If you haven’t already, please upgrade your subscription now to receive it when it is published at the end of the month.
To the moon and beyond,
Andrew
Disclaimer
The content of this letter is for informational and entertainment purposes, and should not be construed as personal investment advice.