Nike (NKE) 👟
Just Do It—While It’s Discounted
Overview
Nike, Inc. is the global leader in athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment. Founded in 1964 and based in Oregon, Nike’s mission is to “bring inspiration and innovation to every athlete in the world.” It operates globally under the Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands, with major segments across footwear, apparel, and direct-to-consumer. Nike serves more than 190 countries, and while rooted in sports, it’s evolved into a cultural force at the intersection of performance, fashion, and lifestyle.
The company generated $51B in revenue in fiscal 2024, with ~44% now coming from Nike Direct (its own stores and e-commerce). North America remains the largest market, but Greater China and other emerging markets represent the biggest upside. With over 300 million active digital members and deep brand equity, Nike’s competitive moat is real.
Market Turmoil
Consumer spending has slowed. Inventories built up post-pandemic. Trade war noise has resurfaced. Nike’s recent stock correction—down ~66% since peaking in 2021—was triggered largely by renewed tariff fears, slowing China sales, and a modest guidance reset. But the market reaction feels overdone.
Yes, tariffs could affect margins until lifted. But Nike’s diversified manufacturing footprint, pricing power, and digital engine give it flexibility. This is a short-term headwind, not a business model break. The fear priced into the stock looks like an overreaction—and that creates a window.
Key Strategic Drivers
Nike is driving growth through a few high-conviction initiatives:
Digital + Direct: Nike’s digital ecosystem (Nike App, SNKRS, Run Club) is a moat. Nike Direct is now 44% of brand revenue and growing faster than wholesale—with higher margins.
Women’s: Nike’s women’s segment is ~$9B, growing faster than men’s but still significantly smaller. Closing that gap is a multi-billion-dollar tailwind.
Product Flywheel: With innovation like ZoomX foam, Flyknit, and carbon-fiber plate tech, Nike isn’t just releasing shoes—it’s resetting performance benchmarks and sparking demand cycles.
Global Expansion: China, India, Southeast Asia—all underpenetrated. Nike’s brand already resonates, and the middle class is growing. More feet, more sneakers.
Investment Thesis
Buying Nike now is a bet on execution catching up to brand strength. The core business is intact. Valuation has reset. Here’s why it’s interesting:
Brand Moat: Nike doesn’t sell gear—it sells aspiration. That’s hard to replicate and keeps pricing power intact even during slowdowns.
Undervalued Today: Tariff fears, inventory noise, and macro concerns have driven the stock down. But the downside looks priced in. The upside isn’t.
Margin Rebound: Ocean freight rates are dropping. Promotional activity is normalizing. As Nike clears inventory, gross margins are expected to rebound.
Olympics Tailwind: Paris 2024 will be a global Nike showcase. Expect visibility, narrative momentum, and demand to spike.
Nike isn’t a turnaround. It’s a tier-1 business navigating a temporary slowdown. You’re getting it at a discount because of sentiment—not fundamentals. That’s usually when the best setups appear.
Market Potential and Growth Catalysts
Global sports and fitness trends remain strong.
DTC and digital penetration still have room to grow.
Women’s, youth, and emerging market segments are structurally under-monetized.
Sustainability leadership (Move to Zero) is aligning with long-term consumer preferences and ESG flows.
Share buybacks and dividend growth will continue, quietly adding shareholder value.
Near-Term Price Catalysts
Tariff resolution or simply reduced investor anxiety = upside.
Earnings beat + gross margin improvement = multiple expansion.
Olympic exposure + high-heat product drops = renewed brand heat.
China stabilization = reacceleration.
Investor Day updates or DTC strategy refinements = confidence trigger.
Conclusion
Nike is one of the most iconic brands on earth. It’s had a rough 12 months—but not for reasons that break the story. If you believe in brand equity, consumer trends, and long-term compounding machines, this is the moment to lean in—not out.
Explain It Like I’m 5
Nike makes the shoes all your favorite athletes wear. People freaked out because it might cost a bit more to make them. But everyone still wants Nikes—and now the stock is on sale. If you liked it before, you should love it now.
Supporting Information
Nike, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results
Can Nike Stock Make a Comeback to Its Pre-Inflation High of $170? – Trefis
To the moon and beyond,
Andrew
Disclaimer
The content of this letter is for informational and entertainment purposes, and should not be construed as personal investment advice.