December Market Update 🪦
Fed Pivot | Reversion to the Mean | RIP Bear Market '22
Finally, the Fed pivoted to slower hikes after inflation came in weaker than expected. I am expecting 1-2 more 25-50 bps hikes and then a pause for several months while they wait for the recession, then rate drops in Q3/4. We are very close to a global pivot in liquidity and central bank balance sheet growth, which will mark the reversal of the painful narrative that has dominated 2022 (USD rally and mass sell off of all assets and fiat currencies). We are in the midst of the accumulation zone for tech stocks and web3 assets, akin to late 2018. Markets revert to the mean, and after one of the worst years in history, the probability of an aggressive reversal in sentiment and prices is likely. Tax loss selling, along with unprecedented fear-driven put-buying (forcing sellers to short stocks to hedge positions) is likely driving this last purge before year-end. In several months we will look back to this exact moment and it will be so obvious that this was a rare buying opportunity.
Currently, my top investment ideas are CloneX, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Otherside, Ethereum, Bitcoin, and ARKK.
RTFKT is getting more publicity and marketing from Nike and has vowed to focus on core projects and communicate more with the community. The team is so prolific and has so many projects on the go, we just need more clarity on what they are building and the role the core community (CloneX holders) play in it. They also just announced space pod burning for January.
Otherside just dropped a new video that is really impressive and has announced that the next Trip will be in late March.
BAYC just launched the Trial of Jimmy the Monkey and dropped a trailer to kick it off. They have a few weeks of hype coming followed by a mint and reveal in late Jan and early Feb.
Moonbirds announced a collaboration with X-Copy and should be launching Mythics in January.
Doodles finally announced that Dooplicator utility will come in January and Genesis boxes can be opened in February, along with Doodles 2 launch.
ARKK is still under pressure with Tesla weighing it down, while Cathie continues to add to TSLA and other core positions like COIN. ARKK has erased 5 years of gains…reversion to the mean, time for a reversal.
The next investment idea is Murakami Flowers, a digital art collection by Takashi Murakami. If you haven’t already, please upgrade your subscription now to receive it when it is published at the end of the month.
To the moon and beyond,
Andrew
Disclaimer
The content of this letter is for informational and entertainment purposes, and should not be construed as personal investment advice.