October Market Update 🤑😱
Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful
Uptober has definitely disappointed thus far. However, October has also been the month that has killed more bear markets than any other month with bear market bottoms observed in the first half of the month in some of the biggest bear markets in history. The Fed pivot waiting game continues as we watch economic data, inflation, all assets, and sentiment collapse as the dollar wrecking ball reaps havoc across the world. Some central banks have paused QT and are back to QE (although, they are not calling it that). Many macro indicators are pointing to incredible buying opportunities that we have not seen in decades or longer. For those with the enterprise and capital to stomach the queasy and precarious macro environment, this will be a defining moment as they look back during the next euphoric peak of the upcoming bull market. The Fed has recently started to change their messaging, to mixed signaling rather than the steadfast language they have used over the past year. They are now saying that they may expedite the hikes over the next two meetings and pause thereafter, while also saying that they may slow the pace of hikes, and that they know inflation will come down fast very soon while also saying that they are uncertain that core inflation has peaked. This scattered messaging could be a sign that they unanimity has dissolved and they are likely to pivot by end of year. The next meeting in early November will be critical and very telling. It’s frustrating to have to watch the Fed so closely now, but the reality is that currently, all global assets are at the mercy of the Fed - this is the global lever and all else is just noise. As a macro investor, I see opportunity almost everywhere, and especially in Web3 and tech stocks.
Bitcoin & Ethereum have performed very well relative to the NASDAQ and in the face of global turmoil and uncertainty. NFT volumes are coming back after the Merge, and all blue chips are expected to release major developments in their roadmaps. It’s airdrop season now.
Currently, my top investment ideas are CloneX, Azuki, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Doodles, Otherside, Moonbirds, Ethereum, Bitcoin, ApeCoin, and Goblintown.
RTFKT announced project Animus, a drop for all CloneX holders in November. Also, they announced a collaboration with RIMOWA that is being revealed via a side quest. Additionally, they could be doing a collaboration with BAYC based on a tweet and in general have set huge expectations for Q4.
An Otherside announcement is expected any day now. Likely to be the next Trip to the Otherside or more details about Kodas/land/marketplace and next steps.
BAYC is also expected to come out with a big announcement very soon.
Moonbirds just revealed the nesting reward for the Gold Nest. It seems the community is very excited about this one, so this is the first W for the team as it related to nesting rewards. We are expecting more details on their upcoming nye collection, Mythics, to be released very soon.
Doodles has been painfully quiet, although tweeting more than usual. Still waiting for announcements for Doodles 2 and the Dooplicator.
Azuki has been pretty lit over the last month with a lot of community engagement and communication. They are currently putting on a Proof of Skate event in Hong Kong and revealed the second phase (The Garden) of their Metaverse, we are still waiting for the third phase.
ApeCoin staking commencing on October 31st. This should drive a lot of price action for ApeCoin and BAYC/MAYC. This is an insanely highly anticipated event and should prove to be foundational for the Web3 space.
Goblintown revealed their secret project, which resurrected an original PFP project from many years back. Also, they posted a vague roadmap and overview of the ecosystem.
Believe it or not, the next investment idea is not a NFT project. I’m breaking my streak of 5 consecutive NFT investment ideas with ENS (Ethereum Name Service). ENS is the combination If you haven’t already, please upgrade your subscription now to receive it when it is published at the end of the month.
To the moon and beyond,
Andrew
Disclaimer
The content of this letter is for informational and entertainment purposes, and should not be construed as personal investment advice.