September Market Update 🍁
Higher Rates, The Merge, NFT Season, Uptober
Well, market sentiment has continued to score as the worst in a long time as the Fed continues to aggressively raise rates, despite falling inflation, into a recession. Sentiment and risk-asset exposure levels are the lowest they have been in over 20 years. This entire situation screams buy buy buy. As we know, when everyone is bearish it’s prudent to be bullish. Historically, this is the point the Fed would pivot and then reverse the rate cycle. Markets believe that we are very far away from that moment despite many historical indicators indicating otherwise. I think inflation will continue to fall next month and the Fed could be one or two meetings away from pausing and then possible lowering rates as early as Q1 2023. By this time inflation could be lower than the Fed rate. Although, sentiment can change and markets can rally even as rates rise, this has happened many times in the past. Extreme bearishness is not sustainable.
The Ethereum Merge to a Proof of Stake finally happened! And it happened flawlessly and on target. I am more bullish on Ethereum now than ever before, even more so than Bitcoin given its applications, new green narrative, and deflationary nature. If I had to choose only one asset to hold for the next 10 years, it would be ETH.
Leading up to the Merge, NFTs were slowly bleeding out as investors stacked ETH to maximize the amount of Proof of Work ETH they would receive post Merge. Since the Merge, NFT volume has picked up and floors are moving higher. The leading blue chip PFP collections are gearing up for a big Q4 that will draw attention and perhaps usher in the next wave of adoption. NFTs are not correlated to crypto or equity markets and therefore could rally even in the depths of a dark bear market that we have been in for almost a year.
October has been nicknamed “Uptober” due to the many massive pumps we have seen in that month (like the past 2 years). It wouldn’t be surprising if we saw a relief rally, or even a sustained turn in sentiment led by a bullish inflation print.
I still feel sick watching markets and I desperately want to sell everything. I revisit my investment thesis for each position weekly to remind myself of the foundation of my conviction and give me the strength to HODL. During the bull market I felt euphoric and desperately wanted to own more of everything. It’s wise to always go against these animalistic urges of fear and greed. This is the plight of an investor and it never gets easier. I’m not selling, I’m adding.
Currently, my top investment ideas are CloneX, Azuki, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Doodles, Otherside, Moonbirds, Ethereum, Bitcoin, and ApeCoin.
The RTFKT forging event went off flawlessly and they announced a new INVNTRY app. It looks like this app could be the beginning of a whole digital fashion marketplace Nike has been teasing.
I’m expecting a big announcement for Clones (maybe a drop) and potential pod burning any day now as well as the MNLTH2 Quest to commence imminently.
Also, there is speculation that Lebron James will soon change his Twitter PFP to a CloneX and announce a collaboration.
A lot of hype coming down the pipe as we enter Q4.
Yuga released a prequel trailer for the Otherside that looked amazing. Also Snoop Dog and Eminem performed as their BAYC Apes at the VMAs! Waiting for more information on many different fronts as well as more Otherdeeds and the next Trip to the Otherside.
I’m expecting a big BAYC announcement to come any day. The team has been quiet for a long time while the ecosystem keeps expanding.
FuturePROOF revealed some details about Highrise, a new collection called Mythics, as well as a token. Expecting more information about Mythics, the token, and the Gold nest benefits. Also, expecting Ryan Carson’s fund to 🧹 the Moonbirds floor the first few days of October.
Doodles announced a $50M funding round led by a16z as well as released some plans about their vision. I’m expecting an announcement for Dooplication to begin as well as use of the Genesis boxes along with Doodles 2 release.
I’m expecting a big AZUKI announcement tomorrow regarding a speculative Series A funding round as well as a potential reveal of the Alley portion of AzukiWorld as per last months site debut. I’m also expecting a big announcement in mid October as Azuki picks up more momentum in Q4.
ApeCoin staking commencing on October 31st. Lots of speculation about details but they have not officially been confirmed.
The next investment idea is a Web3 company that is setting the standard for digital intellectual property, storytelling, experience, and culture that captures the zeitgeist of this decade. If you haven’t already, please upgrade your subscription now to receive it when it is published at the end of the month.
To the moon and beyond,
Andrew
Disclaimer
The content of this letter is for informational and entertainment purposes, and should not be construed as personal investment advice.